Green Lighting Movie Scripts: Revenue Forecasting and Risk Management

Written By: Jonathan Rayos | Category: News | Comments : 0 comments

Plenty of movie fans think Hollywood fare has become too rote.

Now, some professors at U Penn’s Wharton School and NYU’s Stern School present a case for making it even more formulaic.

In their paper “Green Lighting Movie Scripts: Revenue Forecasting and Risk Management” Jehoshua Eliashberg, Sam K. Hui, and John Zhang show Hollywood how it’s done. Never mind the stars or directors hired— they say it’s possible to predict a movie’s eventual box-office success by simply applying their mathematical formula to the script.

The academics analyzed the scripts of 200 movies released between 1995 and 2006. They coded the scripts for different variables ranging from the percentage of interior scenes to whether they included a strong nemesis.

Their conclusion: the most important variables in predicting box-office performance are whether the film is in the action genre, how conflict builds, and whether the conflict is multidimensional.

They also looked at risk-adjusted return on capital, and conclude that the movies with the best returns are in what they call the family-movie genre, followed by comedy. The worst risk-adjusted returns are on horror movies, the academics say.

“Based on our interactions with industry executives, forecasting and risk management are the two capabilities that are sorely needed in the movie industry in order to transform it from an intuition and experience-based decision making into a more science-based decision making,” Eliashberg, Hui, and Zhang write. “A science-based approach can pay off handsomely.”

Maybe, just maybe, there’s hope for a little less greenlighting of the “Prince of Persias” of the future and a little more like “Toy Story 3.”

Read the white paper : http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/news/docs/hui_scripts_5.6.2010.pdf

International movie audiances changing the landscape of Hollywood

Written By: Jonathan Rayos | Category: News | Comments : 0 comments

:: The rising clout of international audiences is a sea change for Hollywood. Decades ago, a movie’s foreign box office barely registered with studio executives. Now, foreign ticket sales represent nearly 68% of the roughly $32 billion global film market, up from roughly 58% a decade ago, according to Screen Digest Cinema Intelligence Service.

:: The rise of the international box office has as much to do with a shifting global economy as with the evolution of the movie business. For years, Hollywood’s bottom line was propped up by double-digit growth in DVD sales. From 2000 to 2005, for example, home-video sales increased by 91% in the U.S. But during the tough economy of the past two years, home video—which used to account for the bulk of a film’s profits—fell more than 20%, according to Screen Digest U.S. Video Intelligence Service. Dwindling in-theater audiences in North America also have contributed to the shift.

Jonathan C. Rayos

CEO :: Executive Producer

FilmEmerge :: FilmEmerge Productions

www.filmemerge.com

source: wsj.com

Stars Taylor Lautner & Jackson Rathbone

Twilight saga “Eclipse” stars Jackson Rathbone and Taylor Lautner both have their Michigan connections. Rathbone went to Interlochen Arts Academy in Michigan and is close friends with Interlochen buds, Ben Graupner and Ben Johnson. …Lautner grew up as a kid in Hudsonville near Grand Rapids, Michigan until his family moved to L.A. to pursue his career.

Life for Hudsonville native Taylor Lautner has been in whirlwind. In seven months since he starred in New Moon he has hosted SNL, presented an academy award and become one of the highest paid teen actors.

Later this year in the fall, Lautner begins work on the 2-film series, “Breaking Dawn” directed by Bill Condon. “It would have been impossible to make a movie well, doing it as one,” he said. “There’s so much to cover. It’s hard enough condensing 500 pages into a movie, and it would have been impossible to condense 800. “(Shooting ‘Breaking Dawn’) is going to be sad for us,” he said of his camaraderie with the “Twilight Saga” cast. “It’ll be hard to say goodbye, so I’m glad it’ll be a nice, long experience.”

Lautner and his father have started their own film production company, named “Tailor Made Entertainment”. Their first two films, to be used as a vehicle for Taylor are “Abduction” directed by John Singelton and “Stretch Armstrong”.

In the interview Lautner talks about his very close family, who moved from Hudsonville(By Grand Rapids, MI) to Los Angeles in 2003 to allow him to pursue an acting career.

Some bit parts in movies and TV led to a supporting role in 2005’s “Cheaper by the Dozen 2,” and a lead in Robert Rodriguez’s “Sharkboy and Lavagirl in 3-D,” also released in ‘05. “I remember back when I was 10 years old, and I told my parents for the first time that this is what I want to do. They said, ‘Taylor, we can’t do it from Michigan. We’d have to live in Los Angeles if you want to do that.’ And I was like, ‘Really? OK!’ And my parents packed the bags and made the very risky and supportive move to L.A. to pursue my dream.”

:: FilmEmerge® BE SEEN™

2010 Waterfront Film Festival – Saugatuck, Michigan

Written By: Jonathan Rayos | Category: News | Comments : 0 comments

One of the movies we watched was the highly anticipated production by Tic Toc Studios.  Tic Toc Studios is a Holland, Michigan based movie production company headed by Hopwood Dupree.

“Tug” was filmed entirely in the Holland area in the summer of 2008.  “Tug” was one of the first movies to start production in West Michigan after the the passing of the state film incentives April 7, 2008.

The movie – starring Sam Huntington, Haylie Duff, Sarah Drew, David Zellner, Maulik Pancholy, Wendi Mclendon-Covey, Yeardley Smith, and Zachary Knighton.

The plot synopsis from TicTock Studios:  A small town Michigan guy (Sam Huntington) has his life begin to hilariously unravel as he is torn between staying with his current girlfriend (Sarah Drew), or bouncing back to his psycho ex (Haylie Duff).  Life would be so much easier if he could just follow his better judgment.  But he can’t.

The better judgment would have been if the selection committee of the Waterfront Film Festival, to have not shown the movie “Tug” to a sold-out audience of over 750.

We initially arrived to a nearly two block line outside of it’s venue screening, with a very lively crowd.  Upon being seated, the primarily local partisan crowd was vocal and quite happy.  Mr. Dupree addressed the sold out audience touting it’s first full feature production.

We were opened to a very surprising short film called “The Thong,” which took the audience into attention mode.  “The Thong” set up “Tug” for a very fast downhill ride, and this was not a roller coaster.

“Tug” a directorial debut by Abram Makowka.  The film is a nice little picture, that is a bit unfocused.  Sam Huntington plays the film’s unnamed lead character, who is a wannabe screenwriter living in Michigan.  He has a good relationship with his girlfriend, played by Sarah Drew, but his relationship is threatened by an ex-girlfriend who won’t leave him alone.  This crazy ex-girlfriend only increases Huntington’s  uncertain life and the film follows him as he tries to gets his life in order.

The best thing about the film is the performance of Sam Huntington.  He is a very relatable presence on-screen.  You do feel like you could be his character.  Zachary King also delivers a good comedic performance as Huntington’s best friend in the film.  One problem with the film is that I didn’t feel that there were any life changing stakes involved in the story.  Some of the major plot changing scenes in the film are tired out; we have seen these scenes before in other films done better.  Towards the end of the film I grew frustrated and just wanted this guy to make a decision and move on with his life.  I liked the performances better than the film’s story.

It seems that the uncertainty in this movie is transferred to the audience, as most did not know how to clap upon it’s ending.   I am hoping that Tic Toc Studios next production to be touted from Michigan has less uncertainty, and better judgment.

The movie made its premiere April 29th at the 2010 Newport Beach Film Festival in southern California.  The movie also has a very limited website: http://www.tugmovie.com/.

A commentary by:

Jonathan C. Rayos

CEO :: Executive Producer :: Founder

FilmEmerge

http://www.filmemerge.com

Thoughts on the 63rd Cannes Film Festival

Written By: Jonathan Rayos | Category: News | Comments : 0 comments

These three major film fests, Sundance, Telluride, Cannes, all take place in small, charming, and typically quiet towns, and I think that’s what makes them all so special. Maybe it has to do with the idea of getting away from Hollywood and the hustle-bustle of major metropolitan areas for a few weeks and relaxing by the snow, mountains, or ocean, and discovering/enjoying great films.  (Yours truly only other sub-major film fest has been to the Waterfront Film Festival in Saugatuck, Michigan.)  I’m sure there’s actually a real reason for these different locations being chosen and it may come from the early history of these premium fests, but I’m still mesmerized by the distances one must travel to get to the place where one has to watch films in theaters that are really not too different than the other thousands of movie theaters available.

The Cab, Cannes, France
Cannes Cab – Costs about $50 Euros

I’m not really sure what to make of this thought yet, as it’s just something that’s been on my mind, but it’s going to stick with me this year as I judge whether the journey is worth it.   I’m one of those technophiles who must be connected to the world wide web via my iPhone and laptop, I do love venturing out to these towns. Maybe it has something to do with the idea of being in such a different and remote location and still being surrounded by all things cinema.

There’s also the possibility that it may spawn from the glamorous lifestyles of the rich and famous (actors, executives, producers alike) who love coming to these remote locations as well (for vacation and publicity). Although, ironically the festivals have become a haven for paparazzi, celebrity “whores”, “starfuckers” (another celebrity monger), and droves of people who just want to gaze at stars and that’s it. They don’t care about the films and it becomes quite sad to see; I’m not complaining about something that doesn’t truly affect me.

If anything, maybe I can inspire a few more cinephiles to take it upon themselves to one day take a journey to one of these premium festivals. It’s grueling, exhausting, and downright expensive, but it’s worth it, there’s absolutely no question about that, right?  It brings a smile to my face to think about the distance traveled needed to come to be immersed in a world that is separated from Hollywood.  Perhaps attending Cannes de Festival is for pure indulgence, exposure, self rightuousness, ego enhancement, or for the business of showbusiness, right?

Well enough of what I think, let’s take some paparazzi pictures.  I wonder who I can stumble upon?

Jonathan C. Rayos
CEO | Executive Producer
FilmEmerge
http://www.filmemerge.com

Entrants to Private Equity Finance for Independent Feature Film Funding

Thoughts on the opportunities and potential returns  for a new private equity film fund .

I would suggest a focus be on three areas namely: 1. Interim financing (aka”Bridge Financing”) required by the producers of a film at the point when a project is “financed” by virtue of legally binding offers from acceptable parties and the finalization of long form documentation on which such offers are conditional. 2. The cash flowing of (“Tax Break Funding”) available to film productions in various jurisdictions. 3. Mezzanine finance (“Gap Funding”) secured against the unsold rights of individual films.

My comments on these investment opportunities are as follows:

BRIDGE FINANCING Financing of independent films is a complex and fragmented process, involving numerous parties. The finance for many pictures often does not ‘close’, and funds are not available for drawdown in time to commence principal photography. A typical film requires as much as 10% of its funding up to 8 weeks prior to the start of filming means that without a source of cash flow from Bridge Financing, a production can be seriously compromised. An unfortunate fact is this problem is never greater than when a bank is involved in the financing and this applies to the majority of independent films; a conservative estimate is that films with budgets equating to 50% of the sectors’ aggregate production value* have a bridging requirement. Bridge Financing is an extremely specialized market and can only be managed properly individuals with knowledge of all aspects of film finance.  The bridging requirement is typically 20% of a film’s budget and the market affords repayment plus a 15% fee on closing of finance. The bank’s lawyers typically finalize documentation in two months, i.e this is the Bridge Fund loan period and, again conservatively, it is reasonable to assume that a Bridge Fund will turn over three times each year. A Bridge Financing proposal could not be recommended without legally binding offer letters in place, subject to the completion of long form documentation. These should support the need for an amount totaling a “strike price” endorsed by an acceptable completion bonding entity. In the case of media lending banks and state bodies providing subsidies or spend related tax breaks then once their offer letters, lawyers instructions and first drafts of key documents are in place, you would deem this sufficient to proceed with the Bridge Financing. However other financiers would be required to place their funds on an escrow account, pending financial close, in advance of drawdown of bridging funds. Similarly, legally binding pre-sale contracts being discounted by the bank in question, a letter of intent from an acceptable completion bond company confirming that the strike price would be met from the sum total of the conditional financing offers, contracts with key talent and a legal opinion with regard to chain of title would all need to have been executed prior to drawdown.

TAX BREAK FUNDING In today’s market it is almost inconceivable that an independent film will be financed without the aid of tax breaks. In truth production companies gravitate to such jurisdictions to avail themselves of what is effectively non-recoupable finance. It is reasonable to assume that such tax breaks would account for at least 15% of a film’s budget. The downside of state tax schemes to producers is that, being spend related, the benefit in cash terms only becomes available after audited proof that the associated expenditure has been incurred. At its worst this can mean waiting until completion of the film although many schemes, most notably those in the US, pay out within three months. Given this time lag there is undoubtedly a huge demand for a fund to cash flow against future tax revenues as the cash flowed amount is typically required to complete the financing for strike price purpose. Although the credit risk to a fund offering Tax Break Funding is more than acceptable, given that it lies with the public sector, the competition to supply this type of finance is, at the moment, limited. Fees payable on such finance are typically 10% of funds advanced but, not unlike bridging funding, annual returns are enhanced by the fact that investment could easily be turned over twice a year. Any Tax Break Funding proposal would be conditional on a local auditor confirming in advance the value of the tax break based upon the legislation then in place and the budgeted spend. The costs of such audit would be charged to the budget of the film in question. Funding would also be conditional, inter alia, on the completion bond company providing comfort that the actual spend in the relevant jurisdiction will be in line with the budgeted spend.

GAP FUNDING The term “gap finance”, an element of which appears in just about all independent film finance plans, relates to the provision of funding secured against future revenues generated from the sale of those rights unsold at the time of the initial financing of the film.  The key remaining private sector providers of gap finance are the traditional media banks who are currently providing a maximum of 15% of the budget. It is my belief that there is a fundamental flaw in the media banks’ lending strategy in that their analysis focuses too greatly on the ratio of the value of unsold rights to the amount of gap finance provided and places insufficient emphasis on what total sales as a percentage of budget need to be in order to recoup. In short, all other things being equal, a 25% gap finance provision with 90% of worldwide rights unsold by value represents a safer financing opportunity than a 15% gap investment with only 30% of worldwide rights still available for sale. Given the above, and the competitive edge that a private equity fund has over a bank in terms of its ability to commit more quickly, my recommendation would be to compete with the media banks’ gap funding rather than provide so called “super-gap” finance alongside but subordinated to them. A 25% gap provision would undoubtedly secure a significant, say 20%, share of the total, bank and non-bank, market today. Such a percentage would attract an executive producer fee at a minimum of 3% of a film’s total budget plus a 20% premium on investment recoupable together with the principal in first position. In terms of timing the typical production cycle extends to ten months. Allowing four months to deliver and collect under sales contracts I would estimate funds to be turned over within fourteen months. There is the option to discount these contracts with a bank as and when they are fully documented, thereby expediting the timing of availability of funds for reinvestment, but this would need to be weighed up against the cost of lending. Aside from executive producer fees and investment premiums the private equity fund may be entitled to a real profit share, namely one that is triggered immediately on repayment of all recoupable sums (often as little as 80% of budget) and sales commissions. The premiums on investment detailed above are, by the favorable nature of their place in the revenue “food chain”, to a large extent a trade off for a profit participation. Accordingly, even though a small profit share should be achievable, I have not provided for this in the return on equity calculation detailed below. The key to Gap Funding is undoubtedly the identity of the sales agent and charged with selling the rights to a film. Accordingly such funding will be conditional, on the sales estimates, against which it is secured, originating from an acceptable party and in an amount, net of commission, to provide sufficient cover for the principal amount and the associated premium to be recouped. An offer of Gap Funding at 25% of a film’s budget will be sufficient.

Jonathan C. Rayos

CEO | President | Executive Producer

FilmEmerge | FilmEmerge Foundation | FilmEmerge Productions

www.filmemerge.com

ANY INVESTMENT IN FILMED ENTERTAINMENT IS SPECULATIVE AND INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISKS INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE POTENTIAL FOR LOSS OF SOME OR ALL OF THE INVESTED CAPITAL, A FILM’S LACK OF AN OPERATING HISTORY, LIMITED REGULATION OF A FILM’S ACTIVITIES, THE RISKS OF THE TYPES OF INVESTMENTS TO BE MADE BY A FILM, A FILM’S POTENTIAL USE OF LEVERAGE, NO OR LIMITED LIQUIDITY OF THE INVESTOR’S INTEREST IN A FILM, LACK OF DIVERSIFICATION OF THE FUND’S INVESTMENTS, POSSIBLE NEED FOR FOLLOW-UP INVESTMENTS, MANAGER CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED PERFORMANCE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT FEES AND EXPENSES AND MANAGER’S PERFORMANCE BASED COMPENSATION. INVESTORS WHICH HAVE A PRELIMINARY INTEREST IN THE FILM SHOULD UNDERSTAND ALL SUCH RISKS AND HAVE THE FINANCIAL ABILITY AND WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT SUCH RISK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE CONSIDERING MAKING AN INVESTMENT IN A FILM.

(Social Media Expert PanelHollywood, CA)  This year’s Los Angeles Showbiz Expo took place last weekend, April 24-25, at the Los Angeles Convention Center. While the actual exposition was smaller than in years past, I found the real value to be the wide range of workshops offering valuable insight by industry veterans. One such workshop I attended and found especially valuable was titled “Social Media for Film & TV.” The panel was moderated by Robin Rowe (Co-founder| ScreeenPlayLab , COO | MovieEditor.com) and Gabrielle Pantera (Co-Founder | ScreenPlayLab, Executive Producer | Gosh!TV) and included the following impressive ensemble of entertainment industry social media experts:

Jeff Ragovin (CRO | Buddy Media)
Jan Coleman (Executive Producer | MTV’s “The Buried Life”)
Todd Greene (Consultant | MovieSet)
Linda Nelson (Co-Founder | Nelson Madison Films/Indie Rights)
Adam Armus (Executive Producer | NBC TV’s “Heroes”)

The workshop experts offered a nearly constant stream of social media “takeaways” that can be used by anyone interested promoting themselves or their project online. Below are my top 10 list of “takeaways” from this session:

  • Create an online presence from day 1 of your project! It is never too early to start building a fanbase.
  • The Facebook page for your project should be separate from your personal profile page.
  • Let go of your content! Let people get involved that otherwise would not.
  • Build an audience and the sponsors (read: money) will follow!
  • Social media feeds are proving to be a more accurate predictor of box office revenues than more traditional methods (http://mashable.com/2010/04/02/twitter-the-killer-box-office-predictor-2/)
  • Use social media to let others tell their story!
  • Advertise on Facebook. It is very targeted and cheap!
  • With the disappearance of middlemen it is now up to you to find the target audience for your project!
  • Millennials gravitate towards authentic prosocial action. The key word is authentic!
  • Find a “voice” for your Twitter feed. Use separate Twitter accounts for different voices.
  • Feedback from social media can act like a focus group and may be used to help direct your project as it is being developed.

Yes, I know there are actually 11 items here. I threw in the last one for free! Good luck on your next project. Just remember to go out, go online and BE SEEN!

Jason Waterman
CTO & Co-Founder | FilmEmerge

http://www.filmemerge.com

The latest  news that ‘Spiderman director Mark Webb is consulting with Cameron himself on how best to use 3-D.

Just a month ago,  ‘Spider-Man 4′ was going to be a conventional sequel, with director Sam Raimi and Tobey Maquire  still attached, and that Raimi, inspired by ‘Avatar,’ wanted to make a film with unusually elaborate — but not 3-D — special effects.

You may also recall that Sony abruptly scrapped this story idea as too expensive and time-consuming, parted ways with its expensive director and star and hired the bargain-priced  Webb who agreed to make the new movie in 3-D.

Both Raimi and the studio wants the next Spidey to be more like ‘Avatar’ but they didn’t agree on what that meant. To Raimi, it meant extra spectacle for the audience. To Sony, it meant the audience should pay extra to wear spectacles.

http://www.filmemerge.com

Do you think Hollywood is Going Too Crazy with 3D?

Written By: Jonathan Rayos | Category: News | Comments : 0 comments

The last couple weeks, television commercials for ‘Clash’ have been airing that are downright stunning. There’s just one problem: The pristine 2D version we’re catching a glimpse of on TV looks far better than the dark, choppy 3D version we’re paying extra cash for in theaters.

Sure, 3D can be fun, if done well, but does every film need to be in 3D? Of course, considering the box-office take of ‘Clash of the Titans’ this past weekend, it’s pretty safe to say that the 3D debate is officially … well … it’s still officially up in the air.

‘Clash of the Titans’ grossed $61.4 million over the weekend, amid mixed reviews and a downright putrid assessment concerning the film’s 3D effects.

Unlike ‘Avatar’– the most successful film of all time at the box office and a movie that was filmed with 3D cameras — ‘Clash of the Titans’ was never meant to be seen in 3D. How did the up-conversion go over with critics and experts? Not well. Not well at all.

Moviefone co-founder Russ Leatherman (aka Mr. Moviefone) said he “was one of the very first on the 3D bandwagon, but I’m about to jump off. Because of pure greed, Hollywood studios [and theater chains] are about to kill the golden goose. There’s a huge difference between the immersive experience of seeing ‘Up’ or ‘Avatar’ in 3D or the lousy, suffocating experience of the retrofitted ‘Clash of the Titans.’”

The vitriol towards Clash’s 3D didn’t seem to help or hurt the final box office. ‘Clash’ was projected to haul in between $60 million and $70 million; it made $64.1 million over the weekend, right on target.

‘Clash’ was up-converted (there’s that word again) as a direct result of ‘Avatar’s’ box-office dominance. The question is, how long will the ‘Avatar’ 3D cash-grab last? What will it take for moviegoers to defer back to the superior (as in the case of ‘Clash’) 2D, while saving a few dollars at the box office?

And we’ve been here before. ‘Alice in Wonderland,’ a film that also did quite well at the box office, was, like ‘Clash,’ up-converted to less-than-stellar reviews. ‘Avatar’ director James Cameron, who now seems to be the go-to guy when discussing 3D technology, doesn’t believe these films should even be considered 3D. “It’s never going to be as good as if you shot it in 3D,” Cameron said recently, “but think of it as sort of 2.8D.” And even 2.8D, as Cameron notes, is only possible if the proper time — six months to a year — is spent on the up-conversion.

Until recently, 3D was relatively rare — in 2007 there were only two major 3D releases (‘Beowulf’ and ‘Meet the Robinsons’). Now, in 2010 alone, there are (give or take) 15 films slated to be released in 3D.

It would seem 3D is here to stay, unless it isn’t. Meaning: The first gigantic 3D failure — where audiences outright reject a sub-par product — will certainly make studios think twice about a costly 3D film shoot or up-convert. What industry insiders fear, though, is that a terrible up-convert, which doesn’t properly take advantage of the technology available, will unfairly saddle the industry with the perception of an inferior product.

It does appear that for the near-future, audiences will still flock to the theater to see 3D, but that won’t last long. Now that’s it’s becoming commonplace, it’s going to take some pretty mind-blowing effects to spark the interest that ‘Avatar’ did.

Speaking of ‘Avatar,’ director James Cameron, always a visionary it seems, appears to be temporarily jumping off the 3D bandwagon just as everyone else is jumping on — announcing that his re-release of ‘Avatar’ (called ‘Avatar: Home’) this summer, with 55 minutes of new footage, will not be released in 3D.

“The 3D distracts from that”! Wise words, it would seem. Though, 3D has yet to distract from the box office — at least not yet.

Jonathan C Rayos

CEO | Founder

FilmEmerge | FilmEmerge Foundation

http://www.filmemerge.com

Excerpt from the great interview on the Jimmy Fallon Show, with Michael Moore in the guest chair…

Moore: “I’ve always had this feeling that great art, music, film, whatever- comes out of places that are really struggling.  The Beatles were from Liverpool, not from the West End of London.  So Michigan is kind of like our Liverpool.”

Fallon:  “There’s definitely a lot of cool stuff coming out of there. I hope the best for them, I know you do, too. I had so much fun there, I’d definitely go back.” (on shooting Whip It in Michigan)

Moore: “Great place to make a movie.”

Older Posts »